2024 Outlooks (2024)

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What are the economists predictions for 2024? ›

Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence

Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.

The New York Stock exchange (NYSE) at Wall Street, Jan. 31, 2024, in New York. A forward-looking measure of the U.S. economy continued to decline in January but importantly it is no longer signaling a recession in 2024, reflecting an economy outperforming expectations.

GDP growth in the United States is projected to be 2.6% in 2024, before slowing to 1.8% in 2025 as the economy adapts to high borrowing costs and moderating domestic demand.

In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that we expect real gross domestic product growth to slow in 2024 versus the solid 2.5% growth posted in 2023. We expect GDP growth in year-over-year terms to dip to around 1.5% by the end of 2024.

Key Takeaways. S&P Global Ratings expects U.S. real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 as the labor market remains sturdy. We continue to expect the economy to transition to slightly below-potential growth in the next couple of years.

Is Inflation Ever Going to Go Down? Our base case is that inflation will return to normal in the second half of 2024, even as real GDP growth remains positive in year-over-year terms. This is referred by economists as a “soft landing.”

The Q1 2024 forecast indicates an optimistic outlook for the economy, buoyed by a strong job market, consumer spending, and exports. However, geopolitical risks and inflation concerns persist.

Even with tumultuous events last year, such as the failure of three U.S. banks, the nation has not tipped into recession — and certainly not a depression, either. A depression is an extended economic breakdown, and we have not seen signs of that kind of pain. (See recession vs. depression.)

“The American economy is not in a silent depression. It's not even in a depression at all,” House said. “When we came into 2023, many economists thought we might slide into a recession over the course of the year, but growth in goods and services and in trade have all remained far stronger than we anticipated.”

What companies are failing in 2024? ›

J.P. Morgan Research forecasts global core inflation will remain sticky at around 3% in 2024. In the U.S., inflation has cooled significantly but still remains above target. Against a challenging growth backdrop, the road to lower inflation also looks bumpy in the U.K. and the Euro zone.

Key takeaways. We expect the Fed's preferred measure of inflation to reach the central bank's target of 2% by midyear. The easing in inflation will lead the Fed to reduce its policy rate starting in June. But there is a chance that, because of robust economic growth, the Fed will adopt a slower pace of rate cuts.

Employment of economists is projected to grow 6 percent from 2022 to 2032, faster than the average for all occupations. About 1,200 openings for economists are projected each year, on average, over the decade.