Can cash become worthless?
As people move toward more electronic or digital forms of payment, it might seem like paper money is on its way toward obsolescence. But experts say that cash will always be around.
Despite popular belief, the government has no plan to make paper money worthless and the majority of Americans aren't ready to make cash a thing of the past either — with 56% of Gallup respondents revealing they like to have cash with them at all times when they leave the house.
If it's been a long time since you pulled out actual dollars and coins to pay for something — here's a conversation for you. It might seem like cash is slowly becoming obsolete. But, Brett Scott says it's a false narrative that we're all pining for a cashless society.
Hyperinflation. When hyperinflation occurs, every dollar becomes less valuable. $10 might buy you a 12 case of Pepsi today, and then tomorrow that same $10 only buys you six Pepsi's. The currency's value becomes less and less, and this can create a spiral that ends up in it becoming practically worthless.
Though a cashless society may eventually come, it isn't in a huge hurry. The most important step for CFIs right now is to cater to all of the transaction types that their customer demographics prefer in order to provide well-rounded services that address the needs of all customers in the meantime.
A cashless future enabled by technology
We may not be a cashless society by 2060, much less by 2030. But the fact is we're closer to becoming a nearly cashless society every day. The transition from a mostly cash to nearly cashless society didn't happen overnight.
The US is moving toward cashless payments, with a substantial increase in the use of mobile wallet apps and contactless cards. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that payments made using cash accounted for just 18% of all US payments in 2022.
While the future demand for cash is uncertain, it is unlikely that cash will die out any time soon.
For its part, the US Federal Reserve is conducting research and strategic planning regarding the potential implementation of CBDCs, spurred on by Biden's executive order. Despite these efforts, America has yet to make a concrete commitment to adopting a digital dollar.
A cashless society offers a range of benefits such as convenience, transparency and stability. However, there are concerns about financial exclusion , privacy and security. It has been suggested that disadvantaged groups are most likely to be disproportionately affected by the transition away from cash.
Will U.S. dollar collapse 2024?
We expect 2024 to be a year of diverging trends for the dollar. It will likely move lower on a broad trade-weighted basis early in the year but stabilize as the year progresses.
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A collapsing dollar typically leads to inflation, which can inflate your home's nominal value but also increase everything else dramatically. This means while your home might be worth more on paper, everyday expenses like groceries, utilities, and repairs become so much more expensive.
As of June 2023, about 943 million people in mainland China used mobile payments, bolstering the country's status as the world's largest cashless society.
Sweden. With a date set in 2023 to go completely cashless, Sweden is arguably the closest country to achieve this. It is currently not uncommon to see signs that say “No Cash Accepted” in various shops in Sweden.
Sweden's move to a cashless society is encouraged by law and in Sweden, a merchant can legally refuse cash payments. Most Swedish banks don't handle cash transactions in-branch and ATMs are not particularly common (with only 32 per 100,000 people, which is low compared to other countries.
According to the Payments Observatory 2023 report, in 2021 cash accounted for 17.9% of transaction value at traditional merchants, however, by 2025 the figure is expected to drop to just 9.8%. Thus, following this trend, cash could become obsolete in a projection of approximately 10 years.
Cashless society: disadvantages
Elderly people may be less comfortable with tech and less able to make the switch from physical currency. Rural communities could also be left vulnerable, because of poor broadband and mobile connectivity. People with low income or debt tend to find cash easier to manage too.
The big four banks have reassured customers they will maintain in-branch cash services, following Macquarie Bank's unprecedented move to phase out cash and cheque services entirely. Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, NAB and Westpac all confirmed on Friday that there are no current plans to go cashless.
A cashless society would rely on a complex network of digital systems, which would be vulnerable to cyberattacks. If these systems were hacked, it could have a devastating impact on the economy. Privacy is the third challenge raised. Cash can be exchanged anonymously, leaving no digital trail.
What would happen if cash was abolished?
Cash allows us to make purchases anonymously. Without cash, we would be forced to leave a record of everything we buy. While this may not bother some, there are many who worry that governments and/or corporations could use our purchasing histories as a way to track us, monitor us, and even intimidate us.
A cashless society is one in which cash, in the form of physical banknotes and coins, is not accepted in any financial transaction.
Analysis from Barclays Investment Bank, meanwhile, predicts that the global transition from cash to digital payments would reach a tipping point moment in 2025, when absolute cash usage would decline from 41 per cent in 2019 to 20 per cent by 2030.
“We would recommend between $100 to $300 of cash in your wallet, but also having a reserve of $1,000 or so in a safe at home,” Anderson says. Depending on your spending habits, a couple hundred dollars may be more than enough for your daily expenses or not enough.
Demand for cash has dropped by more than 50 percent over the past decade as a growing number of people rely on debit cards or a mobile phone application, Swish, which enables real-time payments between individuals. More than half of all bank branches no longer handle cash.
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