Why the next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan (2024)

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Why the next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan? ›

Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. US factory activity expanded in March for the first time since September 2022. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience.

The economic data should “give more confidence that the US economy is recovering in additional sectors and recession fears for 2024 are likely to be pushed into 2025”, it noted. This means that if there was a potential recession it is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data.

Even with tumultuous events last year, such as the failure of three U.S. banks, the nation has not tipped into recession — and certainly not a depression, either. A depression is an extended economic breakdown, and we have not seen signs of that kind of pain. (See recession vs. depression.)

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief US economist said. The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales data has shown a drop in activity.

Data for 2024 is a forecast. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic rate, which averaged 3.2% between 2015 and 2019.

On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, real GDP grows by 1.8 percent during 2024 and 2.2 percent during 2025. We expect PCE inflation to continue to converge towards the Fed's 2.0 percent goal over the next year (with CPI running slightly ahead), as shelter costs decelerate and consumer goods inflation stays muted.

Hence, we now expect just two interest rate cuts in 2024 before four further cuts next year. We see a policy rate of 3.875% by year-end 2025. The combination of a higher policy rate and further economic resilience prompts us to lift our 2024 year-end 10-year Treasury yield forecast by 20 bp to 4.4%.

Banks considered stable may go under if a panic ensues. Another significant consequence of economic collapse is that currencies are devalued. This can lead to hyperinflation or a currency crisis, further devaluing money—namely, the U.S. Dollar. It also further devalues the currency.

ITR Economics is projecting that the next Great Depression will begin in 2030 and last well into 2036. However, we do not expect a simple, completely downward trend throughout those years. There will be signs of slight growth that pop up during this period.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the average length of recessions since World War II has been approximately 11 months. But the exact length of a recession is difficult to predict. In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months.

Is it good to buy property in a recession? ›

This decreased demand means less competition for homes on the market, which in turn means sellers who are more open to lowering their prices. So buying during a recession, if you are financially able to, may get you a better deal.

Save your finances: The best way to survive a recession

To effectively grow your savings and plan, keep up with your budget, apply emergency fund basics and seek opportunities to improve your financial well-being.

While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over Q2 and Q3 2024. Thereafter, inflation and interest rates should gradually normalize and quarterly annualized GDP growth should converge toward its potential of near 2% in 2025.

Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. US factory activity expanded in March for the first time since September 2022. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience.

Economic recovery begins at the end of the year, but it will not be until 2026 that the recession is over. Consumption will be a key driver in the recovery. Lower interest rates and rising real wages will increase households' consumption growth from the end of this year.

The Q1 2024 forecast indicates an optimistic outlook for the economy, buoyed by a strong job market, consumer spending, and exports. However, geopolitical risks and inflation concerns persist.

According to NBER data, the average U.S. recession lasted about 17 months in the period from 1854 to 2020. In the post-World War II period, from 1945 to 2020, the average recession lasted about 10 months.

US economy sees slowest quarter in two years

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently increased its 2024 forecast for US GDP growth to 2.7% from 2.1% in its January outlook. The Q1 growth figure accompanies a cooling of US business activity in April, while inflation rates slowed slightly.

What happens in a recession? During periods of recession, companies make fewer sales, and economic growth stalls or becomes nonexistent. To cut rising costs, organizations may be forced to lay off large portions of their staff, resulting in widespread unemployment.

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.