Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

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The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on the latest inflation data and other factors, experts predict.

That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023.

Despite the expected rate decline, I bonds are "still a good deal" for long-term investors, according to Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, which closely tracks these assets.

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Meanwhile, short-term investors currently have higher-yield options, such as Treasury bills, money market funds or some certificates of deposit.

Backed by the U.S. government, demand has soared for I bonds amid higher inflation, particularly after the annual rate hit 9.62% in May 2022. Next month, the rate could drop to around 4.27%, some experts predict.

How the I bond rate works

The U.S. Department of the Treasury adjusts I bond rates every May and November. That yield changes based on a variable and fixed portion.

The Treasury adjusts the variable part every six months based on the consumer price index, which is a key measure of inflation. The agency can change the fixed portion or keep it the same.

The fixed portion of the I bond rate stays the same for investors after purchase. The variable rate portion resets every six months starting on the investor's I bond purchase date, not when the Treasury Department announces rate adjustments. You can find each rate by purchase datehere.

Currently, the variable rate is 3.94% and the fixed rate is 1.3%, for a combined rounded yield of 5.27% for I bonds purchased between Nov. 1 and April 30.

The 1.3% fixed rate "makes it very attractive" for investors who want to preserve purchasing power long term, according to Tumin.

How the fixed rate could change

Since the variable rate for I bonds is based on six months of inflation data, experts agree it will fall from 3.94% to 2.96% in May. The fixed portion is harder to predict because the Treasury does not disclose its formula for changes.

David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website thattracks Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS,and I bond rates, expects the fixed rate will be 1.2% or 1.3% in May.

But "1.4% is not out of the question," he said.

Enna looks at a half-year average of real yields for 5- and 10-year TIPS to predict fixed rate changes. The real yield reflects how much TIPS investors earn yearly above inflation until maturity.

A possible fixed rate change from 1.3% to 1.4% "isn't enough to make a huge difference," but investors always prefer the higher rate, he added.

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Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

FAQs

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say? ›

The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on inflation and other factors, financial experts say. That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023.

Are I bonds still a good investment in 2024? ›

At an initial rate of 4.28%, buying an I bond today gets roughly 1% less compared to the 5.25% 12-month Treasury Bill rate (May 1, 2024). You could say that buying an I Bond right now is a 'fair deal' historically compared to 2021 & 2022 when I Bond rates were much higher than comparable interest rate products.

Why don t people invest in Series I bonds? ›

But there are a few potential downsides. For instance, I bonds have a lower maximum investment limit than investments like stocks. And the interest earned on I bonds is subject to federal income tax.

What is the current interest rate for the Series I bonds? ›

Series I bonds will pay 4.28% annual interest from May 1 through October 2024, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced Tuesday. Linked to inflation, the latest I bond rate is down from the 5.27% annual rate offered since November and slightly lower than the 4.3% from May 2023.

Is there a downside to Series I bonds? ›

I bond cons

The initial rate is only guaranteed for the first six months of ownership. After that, the rate can fall, down to a fixed-rate component which, as of May 2024, stood at 1.3%. One-year lockup.

Are series I bonds still worth it? ›

Despite the expected rate decline, I bonds are “still a good deal” for long-term investors, according to Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, which closely tracks these assets.

How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 20 years? ›

How to get the most value from your savings bonds
Face ValuePurchase Amount20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000)
$50 Bond$100$109.52
$100 Bond$200$219.04
$500 Bond$400$547.60
$1,000 Bond$800$1,095.20
May 7, 2024

Why you should not invest in bonds? ›

All bonds carry some degree of "credit risk," or the risk that the bond issuer may default on one or more payments before the bond reaches maturity. In the event of a default, you may lose some or all of the income you were entitled to, and even some or all of principal amount invested.

Should I cash in my Series I bonds? ›

Chances are you bought your I Bonds at the 0.0% fixed rate in 2021 or 2022, so as they are renewing your rates are coming in below 4%, compared to other interest rate accounts at roughly 5%. Keep in mind that cashing out in the first 5 years will cause you to lose your prior 3 months' interest.

Do you pay tax on I bond interest? ›

Interest on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxes but taxed at the federal level at ordinary income-tax rates.

Where can I get 7% interest on my money? ›

7% Interest Savings Accounts: What You Need To Know
  • As of May 2024, no banks are offering 7% interest rates on savings accounts.
  • Two credit unions have high-interest checking accounts: Landmark Credit Union Premium Checking with 7.50% APY and OnPath Credit Union High Yield Checking with 7.00% APY.

What will my bond rate be in May 2024? ›

May 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued May 2024 through October 2024 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.70% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.28%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months. The EE bond fixed rate applies to a bond's 20-year original maturity.

Can I bonds lose value? ›

Answer: No. In periods of deflation, the bond's redemption value won't decline. Question: What are some tax advantages of the Series I bond? until redemption, final maturity (30 years after issue date), or other taxable disposition, whichever occurs first.

How long should you hold series I bonds? ›

Can I cash it in before 30 years? You can cash in (redeem) your I bond after 12 months. However, if you cash in the bond in less than 5 years, you lose the last 3 months of interest. For example, if you cash in the bond after 18 months, you get the first 15 months of interest.

Who should invest in Series I bonds? ›

On the other hand, fixed-income investors who want a safe investment and think inflation will remain high may want to consider I-bonds. However, those who think inflation will moderate might want to consider other types of bonds that may pay higher rates.

Which is better series, EE or I bonds? ›

Bottom line. I bonds, with their inflation-adjusted return, safeguard the investor's purchasing power during periods of high inflation. On the other hand, EE Bonds offer predictable returns with a fixed-interest rate and a guaranteed doubling of value if held for 20 years.

What is the bond prediction for 2024? ›

In 2024, we expect mid- to high-single-digit percentage value growth on most of the world's bond markets. Corporate bonds are likely to be more interesting than government bonds due to their yield pick-up and sound fundamentals. Investment grade (IG) has it all, offering interesting real yields and low default rates.

What is a better investment than I bonds? ›

Bottom line. If inflation and investment safety are your chief concerns — TIPS and I-bonds deliver both. TIPS offer greater liquidity and the higher yearly limit allows you to stash far more cash in TIPS than I-bonds. If you're saving for education, I-bonds may be the way to go.

When should I cash out my I bonds? ›

So if you are a longer-term investor, it may be worthwhile to redeem your old I Bond and re-purchase a new one to lock in the higher fixed rate. Shorter term investors should think about cashing in their I Bond at the 12 or 15-month mark.

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