Prediction: 1 Phenomenal ETF That Is Almost Bound to Beat the S&P 500 | The Motley Fool (2024)

Investors can gain exposure to fast-growing and innovative businesses via this ETF.

In the past 10 years, the S&P 500 index has generated a total return of 240%. This means a $10,000 investment in May 2014 would be worth $34,000 today. That's certainly a respectable gain that should please any investor. This broad index of the largest and most profitable U.S.-based companies gets a lot of the attention as it's the most widely followed barometer to assess how the stock market is performing.

However, there's one booming exchange-traded fund (ETF) that beat the S&P 500 in the past and is almost bound to keep doing so over the long term.

A history of outperformance

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ -1.28%) has produced a total return of 460% in the past 10 years, easily crushing the S&P 500's gain. That same $10,000 would leave you with a balance of $56,000 right now. This is a huge gap that we can't ignore. In fact, this outperformance holds true even if we look back over the past three- and five-year periods.

So, you might be wondering just what exactly the QQQ is. It's an ETF that contains the 100 largest non-financial companies that trade on the Nasdaq exchange. Of the stocks in the QQQ, 59% belong in the technology sector, while 18% are from the consumer discretionary sector. It really is an investment vehicle that gives its owners exposure to innovative and disruptive businesses.

It's worth mentioning that the "Magnificent Seven" components hold a huge weight in the QQQ, 43% of the entire ETF's assets to be exact. These industry-leading enterprises benefit from some powerful tailwinds, like cloud computing, digital payments, artificial intelligence, digital advertising, and streaming entertainment.

The composition helps explain why the average business in the QQQ has likely posted annualized revenue growth in the past five or 10 years that's a much faster pace than the typical company in the S&P 500. Higher sales can lead to higher earnings, which can result in rising share prices.

Other factors to consider

It's very easy for investors to believe that past performance will repeat itself. But this isn't always the case. While the QQQ definitely possesses qualities that foreshadow ongoing outperformance, like its tech-heavy focus and higher growth potential, there are other factors that must be considered.

The stocks are more expensive than the average, as shown by the average holding's price-to-earnings ratio of 35. Some less optimistic investors might believe that many of the highly weighted stocks in the QQQ are expensive and that their valuations will come down soon. While that may be the case, I think over very long periods of time, it has proven to be a lucrative bet to focus on some of the most innovative and forward-thinking enterprises.

Plus, with the QQQ, it's not necessary to pick a single winner within a specific technological trend. Owning 100 different stocks provides a broad level of exposure that ensures you can capture the winners.

I also believe macroeconomic factors could play a role. Tech and consumer discretionary stocks typically do well in robust economic environments. With high interest rates and ongoing inflationary pressures, one could argue we are far from this type of favorable setting. Perhaps this means the QQQ's returns in the foreseeable future will disappoint investors.

I'll counter that by saying that the QQQ has actually outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite since the start of 2023. So, its monster gain has occurred in the face of uncertain macro conditions.

I don't see any compelling reason to believe that the QQQ won't continue beating its more popular benchmark over the next five to 10 years.

Neil Patel and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: 1 Phenomenal ETF That Is Almost Bound to Beat the S&P 500 | The Motley Fool (2024)

FAQs

Prediction: 1 Phenomenal ETF That Is Almost Bound to Beat the S&P 500 | The Motley Fool? ›

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ 0.54%) has produced a total return of 460% in the past 10 years, easily crushing the S&P 500's gain. That same $10,000 would leave you with a balance of $56,000 right now.

What ETF most closely tracks the S&P 500? ›

  • SPY, VOO and IVV are among the most popular S&P 500 ETFs.
  • These three S&P 500 ETFs are quite similar, but may sometimes diverge in terms of costs or daily returns.
  • Investors generally only need one S&P 500 ETF.
4 days ago

Is seeking alpha better than Motley Fool? ›

The Motley Fool is ideal for beginners to intermediate investors looking for growth-focused stock recommendations and straightforward advice. Seeking Alpha suits more experienced investors who value a wide range of analytical perspectives and detailed data.

What is the most successful ETF? ›

1. VanEck Semiconductor ETF. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks a market-cap-weighted index of 25 of the largest U.S.-listed semiconductors companies. Midcap companies and foreign companies listed in the U.S. can also be included in the index.

What is the inverse ETF of S&P 500? ›

An inverse ETF is an exchange-traded fund that enables investors to profit from a decline in a benchmark index, asset or other ETF. For example, if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) goes down 1% on one day, you should expect the price of the ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH) to go up 1% the same day.

What ETF doubles the S&P 500? ›

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bull 2X Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of the S&P 500® Index.

Which index funds outperform the S&P 500? ›

Life Beyond the S&P 500
Fund / TickerMorningstar Category5-Year Return
BNY Mellon Dynamic Value / DAGVXLarge Value15.2%
Centre American Select Equity / DHAMXLarge Blend16.3
Fidelity Value Strategies / FSLSXMid-Cap Value15.0
First Eagle Gold / SGGDXEquity Precious Metals10.3
15 more rows
Apr 8, 2024

What is Motley Fool's top AI stock? ›

2 Top Artificial Intelligence Stocks to Buy Right Now
  • Nvidia is profiting from offering all the products needed to build a data center for AI training.
  • Microsoft has a large installed base of Windows PCs that could provide a lucrative path to monetizing AI technology.
2 days ago

What is the best stock to own with The Motley Fool? ›

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

Is Zacks or Motley Fool better? ›

Zacks is better if you want quantitative analysis and short-term trading ideas. Motley Fool is preferable for fundamental analysis and long-term investing approach.

What is the number 1 ETF to buy? ›

Top U.S. market-cap index ETFs
Fund (ticker)YTD performance5-year performance
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)11.1 percent15.5 percent
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)11.0 percent15.4 percent
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)10.3 percent15.3 percent
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)11.6 percent21.8 percent

What ETF has the highest 10 year return? ›

The best-performing ETF in the last 10 years was VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

What is the best ETF to buy in 2024? ›

5 Best ETFs by 5-year return as of May 2024
TickerFund name5-year return
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF31.19%
SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF26.35%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund21.30%
IYWiShares U.S. Technology ETF20.70%
1 more row
May 21, 2024

Which ETF beats S&P 500? ›

And there's one ETF that specializes in those stocks. That's the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (NYSEMKT: SPGP), which has beaten the S&P 500 in seven of the last 10 years and has steadily outperformed it over the last decade, as you can see from the chart below.

What is an ETF that mirrors S&P 500? ›

S&P 500 ETFs are exchange-traded funds that passively track this influential U.S. large-cap index. Three of the most popular ETFs that track the S&P 500 are offered by State Street (SPDR), Vanguard (VOO), and iShares (IVV). Index ETFs tend to have lower expense ratios compared to the industry average.

Who is shorting the S&P 500? ›

Hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail investors all engage in shorting the ETF, either for hedging or to make a direct bet on a possible decline in the S&P 500 Index.

What is the best ETF for the S&P 500? ›

Return comparison of all S&P 500 ETFs
ETF2024 in %2021 in %
SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF+ 11.85%+39.03%
SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Unhedged (Acc)+ 11.85%-
Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF+ 11.84%+39.08%
iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc)+ 11.83%+39.07%
15 more rows

What is the Vanguard ETF that follows the S&P 500? ›

VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.

Is SPY better than VOO? ›

Over the long run, they do compound—those fee differences—and investors have been putting a lot more money into VOO versus SPY. That is the reason why we view VOO slightly better than SPY. And that is just the basic approach, which is the lower the investor can pay, the better the investment is.

What ETF tracks the S&P 600? ›

iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF.

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