Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (7)

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Monthly update of The Conference Board's forecast for the US economy

The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

May 16, 2024

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Thereafter, inflation should gradually normalize to the Fed’s 2-percent target in 2025 as quarterly annualized GDP growth rises toward its potential of near 2%.Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may stabilize at levels exceeding the pre-pandemic average.

US consumer spending held up remarkably well in 2023 despite numerous headwinds. However, this trend has begun to wane. Realretails salesgrowth is in retreat andconsumer confidence has fallen for several months. Gains in real disposable personal income growth are softening, pandemic savings have been exhausted, and household debt is increasing rapidly. Consumers are spending more of their income to service debt and auto loan and credit card delinquencies are rising quickly. Thus, we forecast that overall consumer spending growth will continue to slow in Q2 and Q3 2024 as households struggle to find a new equilibrium between income, debt, savings, and spending. While we anticipate labor market conditions t

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (8)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

FAQs

Economic Forecast for the US Economy? ›

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending

consumer spending
Actual final consumption of households excludes the general government's collective consumption expenditure which is expenditure on goods and services that cannot be uniquely attributed to households (e.g. expenditure on defence, safety and order, home affairs, environmental protection, national bodies such as ...
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Household_final_consumptio...
growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.

Keep Reading ›
What is the forecast for the US economy in 2024? ›

The US economy's ongoing normalization has progressed further through the second quarter. Amid healthy consumer fundamentals, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2024 by 30 basis points (bp) to 2.5%, and for 2025 by 20 bp to 2.1%.

View Details ›
What's the outlook of the US economy? ›

The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was reported to have increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. That was a moderation from a 3.4 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year.

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How will the US economy be in 5 years? ›

Overall, despite an expected slowdown in the coming quarters, we expect the US economy to post real growth of 2.4% this year and 1.4% in 2025. Over the entire forecast, economic growth averages 1.8% per year, slightly higher than the long-term potential of 1.5% per year.

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Is the US economy growing or declining? ›

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

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What will the US economy look like in 2025? ›

By 2025Q2, quarterly real GDP growth rebound above the 2.0 percent pace, owing to a healthy gain in nonresidential fixed investment and the recovery of consumption. Calendar-year GDP growth registers 2.5 percent again in 2024 and notches down to 1.9 percent in 2025.

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Will there be a global recession in 2024? ›

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with a recession.

Read On ›
What is the prediction of the US economy? ›

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.

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Will the US economy bounce back? ›

WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth remains likely to decelerate and ultimately result in a mild recession in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025, according to the November 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.

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Is business slow right now in 2024? ›

In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that we expect real gross domestic product growth to slow in 2024 versus the solid 2.5% growth posted in 2023. We expect GDP growth in year-over-year terms to dip to around 1.5% by the end of 2024.

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Will the economy recover by 2026? ›

In 2025–2026, GDP growth will speed up thanks to a more rapid normalization of the business environment, to 5.3% and 4.5% respectively.

See Details ›
How much is the US in debt in 2024? ›

U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2024

In April 2024, the public debt of the United States was around 34.62 trillion U.S. dollars, more than two trillion more than in July when it was around 32.6 trillion U.S. dollars.

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How long will the US recession last? ›

The average recession lasted 22 months, and the average expansion 27. From 1919 to 1945, there were six cycles; recessions lasted an average 18 months and expansions for 35. From 1945 to 2001, and 10 cycles, recessions lasted an average 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months.

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Are we heading for a depression? ›

Even with tumultuous events last year, such as the failure of three U.S. banks, the nation has not tipped into recession — and certainly not a depression, either. A depression is an extended economic breakdown, and we have not seen signs of that kind of pain. (See recession vs. depression.)

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What is the US economy prediction for 2024? ›

Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in the middle of the year. In CBO's projections, economic growth rebounds in 2025 and then moderates in later years.

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What country has the best economy? ›

Best Countries Rankings
  • #1. Switzerland.
  • #2. Canada.
  • #3. Sweden.
  • #5. Australia.
  • #5. United States.
Feb 22, 2024

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How is the stock market doing in 2024? ›

“Looking ahead, analysts expect (year-over-year) earnings growth rates of 9.6 percent, 8.4 percent, and 17.1 percent for Q2 2024, Q3 2024, and Q4 2024, respectively,” FactSet reported in its May 3 “Earnings Insight”.

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What will happen to inflation in 2024? ›

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022.

Keep Reading ›
Which is the fastest growing economy in 2024? ›

Top 10 Emerging Markets
RankCountryProjected CAGR (2024-2029)
1Guyana19.8%
2Mozambique7.9%
3Rwanda7.2%
4Bangladesh6.8%
6 more rows
May 2, 2024

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