Do Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Converge to Zero? (2024)

FAQs

Do Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Converge to Zero? ›

Over the long-term, inverse ETFs with high levels of leverage, i.e., the funds that deliver three times the opposite returns, tend to converge to zero (Carver 2009 ).

This shows that the potential for both profit and loss can be magnified with leveraged inverse ETFs. It is also important to note that leverage also means it is possible that a leveraged inverse ETF can go to zero or near zero with a large enough daily move in the price of the underlying asset or index.

Leveraged ETF prices tend to decay over time, and triple leverage will tend to decay at a faster rate than 2x leverage. As a result, they can tend toward zero.

If the volatility is high enough and the holding period is long enough, the constant will be small and the return on the leveraged ETF will be smaller than that of its underlying index. It is possible for an investor in a leveraged ETF to earn negative returns even when the underlying index increases in value.

And the higher the leverage of an inverse ETF, the greater the potential decay of value due to its structure.

For example, if the S&P 500 index goes down by 1% in a day, an inverse ETF tracking it is designed to go up by approximately 1% in the same day. If the index rises by 1%, then the inverse ETF would incur a 1% loss. Thus, these ETFs essentially deliver the opposite return of their benchmark on a daily basis.

Theoretically, any investment, including QQQ, can experience a decline in value and potentially become worthless. However, it is important to note that QQQ represents a basket of established companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, which makes the likelihood of it going to zero highly improbable.

Leveraged ETFs amplify daily returns and can help traders generate outsized returns and hedge against potential losses. A leveraged ETF's amplified daily returns can trigger steep losses in short periods of time, and a leveraged ETF can lose most or all of its value.

Bottom Line on Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs decay due to the compounding effect of daily returns, volatility of the market and the cost of leverage. The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.

For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.

Why are 3x ETFs wealth destroyers? ›

The 3X ETFs use “total return swaps” to create the leverage. These swaps are settled each day. If the index (in this case, the Russell 1000 Financial Index) goes up consistently, then there's a good chance that the total return of the ETF will approximate 300% of the return on the index.

The two major risks associated with leveraged ETFs are decay and high volatility. High volatility translates to high risk. Decay emanates from holding the ETFs for long periods.

Investors who wish to hold inverse ETFs for periods exceeding one day must actively manage and rebalance their positions to mitigate compounding risk. The effect of compounding returns becomes more conspicuous during periods of high market turbulence.

Over the long-term, inverse ETFs with high levels of leverage, i.e., the funds that deliver three times the opposite returns, tend to converge to zero (Carver 2009 ). This also applies to the short ETFs with a lower leverage in cases of high volatility of the underlying index. ...

An inverse ETF is intended for intraday trading. The more frequently you trade intraday, the more transaction costs you incur. Owning an inverse ETF can result in losses if the ETF's target index rises in value — the sharper the increase, the greater the loss will be.

The largest Inverse ETF is the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ with $2.98B in assets. In the last trailing year, the best-performing Inverse ETF was SVIX at 141.32%. The most recent ETF launched in the Inverse space was the YieldMax Short TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF CRSH on 05/01/24.

Inverse ETFs are designed for speculative traders and investors seeking tactical day trades against their respective underlying indexes. For example, an inverse ETF that tracks the inverse performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would reflect a loss of 1% for every 1% gain of the index.

Yes, an inverse ETF can reach zero, particularly over long periods. Market volatility, compounding effects, and fund management concerns can exacerbate losses. To successfully manage possible risks, investors should be aware of the short-term nature of these securities and carefully monitor their holdings.

Inverse ETFs have a one-day holding period. If an investor wants to hold the inverse ETF for longer than one day, the inverse ETF must undergo an almost daily operation called rebalancing. Inverse ETFs can be used to hedge a portfolio against market declines.

"Leveraged and inverse funds generally aren't meant to be held for longer than a day, and some types of leveraged and inverse ETFs tend to lose the majority of their value over time," Doak explained.