If you are confused about all the talk about interest rate pauses and likely cuts, you should consider investing in dynamic bond funds. Dynamic bond funds have the freedom to invest across securities and maturities depending on the outlook of the fund manager. So, when the rates go up, the fund manager might bet on short term securities as a rate hike will marginally impact them. When rates start falling, he will invest in long-term instruments to make money.
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However, this does not mean that these schemes are sure-shot winners. There have been instances where fund managers have wrongly guessed RBI actions and suffered losses. In fact, dynamic funds lost their charm after these schemes were hit by a bad money market and the lack of firm cues on interest rates in 2019. However, at least in theory, it makes sense to get a professional to take a call on interest rates. Especially at a time central banks across the globe are waiting to see definite downward trend in inflation before reducing interest rates.
Many money market pundits say the RBI may start cutting rates in the second half of the year. If that happens, 2024 might been extremely rewarding for debt mutual funds. These schemes had muted years in 2022 and 2023.
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In short, if you are planning to invest for three to five years, but don’t want to take a call on interest rates, you can bet on dynamic bond funds. Kotak Dynamic Bond Fund, one of the recommended schemes, was in the fourth quartile in the last two months. It had been in the third quartile for eight months earlier. Please follow our monthly updates to keep track of your investments.
Best dynamic bond funds to invest in February 2024
- Kotak Dynamic Bond Fund
- ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
ET OnlineMethodology:
ETMutualFunds has employed the following parameters for shortlisting the debt mutual fund schemes.
1. Mean rolling returns: Rolled daily for the last three years.
2. Consistency in the last three years: Hurst Exponent, H is used for computing the consistency of a fund. The H exponent is a measure of randomness of NAV series of a fund. Funds with high H tend to exhibit low volatility compared to funds with low H.
i)When H = 0.5, the series of returns is said to be a geometric Brownian time series. This type of time series is difficult to forecast.
ii)When H <0.5, the series is said to be mean reverting.
iii)When H>0.5, the series is said to be persistent. The larger the value of H, the stronger is the trend of the series
3. Downside risk: We have considered only the negative returns given by the mutual fund scheme for this measure.
X =Returns below zero
Y = Sum of all squares of X
Z = Y/number of days taken for computing the ratio
Downside risk = Square root of Z
4. Outperformance: Fund Return – Benchmark return. Rolling returns rolled daily is used for computing the return of the fund and the benchmark and subsequently the Active return of the fund.
Asset size: For Debt funds, the threshold asset size is Rs 50 crore
(Disclaimer: past performance is no guarantee for future performance.)
